Two new IHS Markit reports on power and energy show vibrant prospects for both the wireless power/charging and the power supplies market, each spurred by high-growth applications or sectors. Both reports are from Dinesh Kithany, IHS Markit senior principal analyst for wireless power and power supplies.

Wireless Power/Charging report: Mobile phones rule
In the Q3-2018 edition of the Wireless Power Market Tracker, analyst Dinesh Kithany projects explosive growth for the wireless power market, with global shipments of wireless power receivers (Rx) and transmitters (Tx) forecast to hit 2.2 billion units by 2023, up by nearly a factor of five from 450 million units in 2017, as shown by the figure below.

While mobile phones account for the bulk of shipments, Apple's failure to launch its much-anticipated AirPower universal multi-device wireless charger has possibly ended up dampening consumer and industry excitement while also slowing the adoption of wireless charging overall. To tap into further opportunities, the wireless power industry has shifted focus from smartphones toward consumer, industrial, and other applications—even in electric vehicles (EVs) that can be charged wirelessly.

Among wireless power technologies, low-frequency magnetic inductive solutions continue to hold the largest share in both Rx and Tx shipments through 2018. In the years to come, however, magnetic resonance and uncoupled solutions are projected to gain significant market share as wireless charging technology becomes popular across a broader market spectrum.

Issued on a quarterly basis as market trackers, the wireless power reports cover a wide range of applications, sectors, and product segments. These include automotive, for both EV and in-cabin use; mobile devices, such as tablets and laptops/notebooks; PC peripherals; wearables, like smartwatches; medical devices, such as hearing aids; smart home devices; home appliances; power tools; service robots and drones; and public places, including infrastructure and the hospitality market.

The report also supplies historical information as well as 5- and 10-year forecast data, alongside a deep-dive analysis of market drivers and barriers, existing technology solutions, and both current and forthcoming trends.

AC-DC and DC-DC Merchant Power Supply Market report: LED lighting propels growth in market revenue
In the AC-DC & DC-DC Merchant Market & External Power Adapters Report - 2018, Kithany projects global revenue for merchant power supplies market to reach $27.6 billion by 2022, up from $20.9 billion in 2017. Much of the expected increase in revenue will occur thanks to LED lighting applications, without which revenue growth would have been marginal at best. Other strong application markets are medical, military and aerospace, consumer, and industrial.

Of the nearly $28 billion in total market revenue for power supplies by 2022, the AC-DC segment covering both the commodity and non-commodity space will account for $25.7 billion, or 93%; the remaining 7%, or nearly $1.9 billion, will come from the DC-DC converters segment. The top 10 power supply vendors together accounted for approximately 41% of global merchant power supply revenue in 2017, of which Delta Electronics was the largest, with an estimated market share of 15%.

Also included in this comprehensive power supplies market report, published annually, is an overview of the competitive landscape, along with key growth opportunities by product type, package type, power ratings, application, region, and country.

The new 2018 edition marks the 13^th year of coverage by IHS Markit of the AC-DC and DC-DC merchant power supply market. It also includes a dedicated section on all external AC-DC power adapters and chargers used to power or charge end-equipment.

The largest segment in the external power adapter market in 2017 belonged to mobile phones, which commanded 45% of industry revenue. Other important applications included set-top boxes, media tablets, and consumer premises equipment.


More information available
For more information on wireless charging and power supplies, visit our website. IHS Markit subscribers also have access to our overall Power & Energy Technology research service.

Dinesh Kithany is IHS Markit senior principal analyst for wireless power and power supplies
Posted 13 February 2019

For display panels in smartphones, the sensor technology that predominates today is in-cell. However, in-cell can be used only on phones with panels utilizing LCD technology. And despite its widespread popularity and application, in-cell cannot be used on phones with AMOLED displays, which deliver superior images to those offered by LCD.

The most popular in-cell touch sensor structure is used on self-sensing in-cell TFT LCDs structured on Vcom blocks and which make use of the LCD Vcom layer as a touch-sensor pattern. Vcom, a portmanteau of the "V" from the word voltage and of the word common, is shorthand for what is known as the common electrode, the first of a pair of electrodes needed to drive voltage to LCD pixels.

Apple, which deploys its own proprietary in-cell touch sensor structure, also makes use of the Vcom layer but adopts mutual sensing as a principle. In Apple's case, its in-cell solution utilizes different sensor pattern designs that look more like many cross sections of transmitters (Tx) and receivers (Rx), unlike the appearance of blocks associated with self-sensing in-cell touch.

In LCDs, Vcom is claimed concurrently by two distinct driver functions: for display TFT driving, which controls and shifts liquid crystals to show grayscale correctly for the color filter; and touch-sensor driving, which is patterned as touch sensor units. It is this twin functionality that makes delivering higher resolution for displays a challenge because more time resources are required to process the display data. Yet in-cell touch technology continues to be an attractive solution to panel makers, boasting better integration on the display's TFT circuitry and integrated circuits.

While LCDs mainly use in-cell, which integrates touch sensors with the display TFT circuitry, the dominant technology for AMOLED displays is on-cell touch, with the touch sensor installed separately on the panel's encapsulation glass substrate. And because on-cell touch sensors are distinct from the TFT substrate, TFT circuitry is not affected. As a result, on-cell does not have the issues presented by in-cell touch. On-cell usually also has better touch sensitivity and performance than in-cell because the on-cell sensor is closer to the finger.

Yet the use of on-cell TFT LCDs in smartphones is declining. Compared with self-sensing in-cell touch, on-cell touch needs an additional process on the color filter glass, increasing manufacturing time and yield risks. Thus, TFT LCD panel makers prefer self-sensing in-cell, not on-cell.

Never possible before
One area that in-cell technology hasn't been able to penetrate is AMOLED displays—until now, that is. Recently, Taiwanese panel maker AUO has been able to deliver a new kind of in-cell touch AMOLED.

AUO's in-cell AMOLED has a touch-sensor pattern process like that adopted by on-cell AMOLED, except that AUO's technology uses the self-sensing pattern. One other major difference is deployment by AUO of additional conductive electrodes to handle traces for blocks and the TFT circuitry for the touch and display-driver integration (TDDI) chip. Its TDDI chip supplier is Raydium.

Common on-cell touch sensor structures adopt a mutual sensing pattern, even though on-cell needs bridges or jumpers for Tx/Rx insulation on the same plane. But what makes AUO's solution unique is that its sensor structure has the blocks on the bottom side of the encapsulation glass, not on the TFT glass. Conduction from the encapsulation to the TFT glass is necessary if the TDDI chip is being adopted.

Technically speaking, in-cell touch cannot produce the same performance as on-cell touch. But AUO seems to have achieved the mass production of 480 x 480 resolution for its smartwatch application, which appears to be acceptable to the company's customers—most likely those who make Fitbit devices. However, its in-cell touch is still not quite ready for smartphone applications just yet given the challenges of implementation on larger display sizes. While smartwatches do not need too much multitouch capability, smartphones do have higher requirements for displays and possess more blocks and traces that need to be taken into consideration.

Trace routing is another critical issue. Mutual sensing capacity generates traces by X+Y (channels), but self-sensing capacities have X*Y. For example, a 6.0-inch smartphone display by mutual sensing likely has 14+28 traces, while self-sensing produces 14*28 traces. If there are too many traces, the in-cell touch sensor structure will likely have difficulty arranging traces going around the edges or in passing through the display active area. If these traces vertically go through the black matrix of the display active area, process and visibility issues become more complicated. As a result, smaller smartwatch displays are more suitable than smartphone displays in adopting the in-cell touch sensor structure.

Self-sensing in-cell TFT LCD does have advantages. It is beneficial in terms of cost and is especially remarkable for photo mask-saving, given that six or seven photo masks are needed to concurrently make display circuitry and touch sensors for an amorphous silicon (a-Si) smartphone display with high definition.

Yet cost is not the major concern with in-cell AMOLED; space is. With in-cell AMOLED, it is possible to save one chip, a flexible printed-circuit cable (FPC), and other passive components, as shown on the illustration below. Saving space is valuable when it comes to smartwatches, especially for round-face types, where circuits are more difficult to arrange than in rectangular types.

Calvin Hsieh is IHS Markit director for touch and user interface
Posted 20 February 2019

Whether you like it or not, artificial intelligence is the future; it's here for the long haul. AI is not just hype or a buzzword, although it is sometimes misused or misinterpreted. And AI resources and experts are in very limited supply, which explains why professionals bearing AI competencies can expect large paychecks, regardless of their location anywhere in the world.

The impact of AI will be disruptive to many—if not all—industries. The disruption will reverberate even in sectors not traditionally known to be connected to industry, such as academia and the educational system, since education is a key component of AI. In fact, AI's impact will be felt by our entire society, especially in these specific areas:

• Privacy and data security
• Labor and the industrial front
• Ethics and morality data handling to autonomous/self-learning robots

The challenges above are also influenced by the peculiar geopolitics of each country, played against an increasingly imminent global backdrop of AI-driven enterprise. For instance, the need for data security and privacy is more pressing and urgent today than ever before, given the ready availability of immensely powerful technologies. Statements last year from French President Emmanuel Macron, who is pushing hard for a national AI strategy in France, highlight the importance of having clear and coherent regulations that would let citizens enjoy the benefits of AI without the technology being abused.

Such concerns underscore the huge investments being made on AI around the world but especially in the US and China, where the race is on to master AI and other similar transformative technologies. Whoever wins will likely hold the key to untold political and economic advantage in the years to come, armed with mighty AI-driven capabilities to successfully address a range of vexing questions, and whose answers could dictate the shape of both public policy and private enterprise in the future.

These questions include where AI software development is headed, the next big role of massive data, AI's effect on law enforcement and regulation, the use of AI in video surveillance, and the technology's prospective impact on government funding and industry development.

Some scenarios appear troubling when the long-term consequences of AI are considered. China, for instance, will have to wrestle with the colossal implications of AI-propelled manufacturing against the gigantic workforce that has been the country's backbone and main engine of growth for decades—that is to say, of permanently abandoning manual labor in favor of impersonal robotic efficiency. The effects of deploying AI know-how in current manually intensive environments must be kept top-of-mind, with requalification and education considered as strategic necessities.

The three stages of AI

We are today at the so-called Narrow or Weak AI stage—where artificial intelligence is less robust than human brainpower; or where AI may be equal to—or superior—in just a few limited tasks and senses. Most AI applications are currently at this point, characterized in general by four major abilities: perceiving, learning, abstracting, and reasoning

The next milestone will be tough to match. Generic Multi-Modal AI is comparable to human intelligence, applies to all the senses, and works powerfully in parallel. From a sensing perspective, electronics and semiconductors already support the ability to see, hear, and touch; and with the latest MEMS technologies, smell and taste as well. The capability to process and operate that kind of data is simply a question of time.

Here we should also mention the weighty matter of conscience, which straddles the contentious realms of religion and philosophy. We can debate what role "conscience" will play in AI and how it might "evolve" as AI continually learns from its experience—mirroring, as some see it, the evolving in humans of consciousness and behavior as a byproduct of experience.

The last step—and I fear to use the word given its potential to be misinterpreted—is Superhuman. To reach this stage is what will drive current and future AI research because at the Superhuman level, AI will soar high above human aptitude and capability.

Before we arrive at this critical juncture, however, we better have in place solid and sound regulations, methodologies, and ethical procedures to ensure that we stay on the high road in AI ventures and endeavors—lest AI become an enemy and prove to be our own undoing.

For more information on IHS Markit research covering artificial intelligence and other transformative technologies, visit our website. You can also see more of Mr. De Ambroggi's incisive commentary on AI as it relates to education, the supply chain, and the semiconductor industry.

Luca De Ambroggi is IHS Markit senior research director on artificial intelligence
Posted 27 February 2019

When Amazon introduced Alexa as the digital assistant in the Amazon Echo and Echo Dot smart speakers in 2014, few people could have foreseen the extensive reach and impact that voice-activated virtual assistants would have on varied aspects of daily life and human activity.

Digital assistants make life more convenient today in many ways. They act as the key mechanism in controlling smart devices in home automation. They can play music, manage alarms, and provide news and other real-time information, like the weather. And they can be "trained" by users to learn new skills to boost their functionality.

Moreover, the use of digital assistants isn't confined to consumer applications alone. These days, digital assistants are finding a place in business—in both the conference room and on the factory floor.

With digital assistants becoming an integral part of daily connected life, the smart speaker market is exploding. Global revenue for smart speakers is forecast to reach $20.9 billion by 2021, the latest IHS Markit forecasts show, up from $7.9 billion in 2018. And by 2021, households throughout the world will have installed some 482 million digitally assisted smart speaker solutions.

Benchmarking performance testing of digital assistants

Many agree that voice control is what makes digital assistants appealing and easy to use. But while all digital assistants understand natural-language voice commands and can complete tasks for users, not all have been created equal.

To see which smart speaker and its accompanying digital assistant delivered the best experience under real-world conditions, RootMetrics tested performance of the four major smart speaker platforms and their digital assistants: Amazon Echo (2^nd generation) and Alexa; Apple HomePod and Siri; Google Home and Google Assistant; and Harman Kardon Invoke and Cortana.

Each digital assistant and smart speaker was tested using a broad range of everyday voice commands separated into four categories. Within each category, five voice commands were issued, and the responses were then recorded and scored.

In the category of Everyday Questions, RootMetrics asked the digital assistants to tell a joke, show the latest weather forecast, and display movie showtimes, among other tasks. In the Media category, the assistants were told to play a song or podcast and tell the news. In the category of Productivity, they were requested to call someone and to set a reminder, timer, or alarm. Finally, in the last category of Web Queries, the assistants were pitched questions like "Why is the sky blue?" and "Where do babies come from?"

Overall, the testing methodology was designed to accurately characterize digital assistant performance on smart speakers from the consumer's point of view, with performance tested in a controlled lab setting. And to ensure consistency of voice, inflection, and cadence during testing, the Google Cloud Text-to-Speech machine learning API was used to give commands.

Each platform was evaluated on three variables: reliability, accuracy, and speed.

Digital assistants received 100% for reliability when an action was performed, or when a response was given for a specific voice command or request. What matters here is that the digital assistant was reliable and could be counted on to answer a question or carry out a task.

For accuracy, the assistants received 100% when they correctly performed an action or provided a correct response to a voice command or request. And because accuracy can only be measured for completed requests, the metric did not apply to tests that received a score of 0.0 for reliability.

For speed, the median response time was used.

And the winner is…?

The race was tight among the four platforms, and Productivity requests were often handled better than other tasks. Still, the testing by RootMetrics revealed surprising results.

Amazon's Echo and Alexa, for instance, garnered a perfect score in Productivity, but stumbled in Media despite the breadth and expanse of the Amazon ecosystem. Apple's Siri, running on HomePod, had its worst score in Everyday Questions.

More details on the performance of each platform can be found in the recent IHS Markit webcast Hey Alexa, Siri, Google and Cortana: Who's the best AI assistant? For additional context, the webcast provides individual results from the teardown of each smart speaker device. A key finding from the IHS Markit teardown revealed that while Amazon Echo offered the best performance among all platforms, its component prices were the lowest of any of the devices tested. Apple HomePod, meanwhile, earned the lowest score during testing, but its component costs were the most expensive among all four smart speakers.

Also available along with the webcast is the infographic Smart Speaker Benchmarking, which describes the metrics involved in testing and summarizes the testing results.

Digital assistant benchmarking and performance analysis is the latest example of testing conducted by RootMetrics, an IHS Markit company. RootMetrics is recognized across the industry for what is considered the most comprehensive measurement methodology of the consumer's technology experience. Its scientific benchmarking provides an objective view of, for instance, how consumers experience mobile networks and other technologies. More information on RootMetrics can be found on the RootMetrics website.

IHS Markit Technology Expert
Posted 13 March 2019

Editor's note: This new blog is from our regular contributor David Hsieh, who was recently named IHS Markit Technology Fellow—one of only 11 titles awarded by the company in recognition of our most respected and experienced analysts.

At the recent MWC 2019, a conference dedicated to mobile technologies, attendees had a chance to glimpse foldable displays in a number of exhibits. According to analysis from the AMOLED & Flexible Display Intelligence Service, the foldable display could well rejuvenate the display industry—thanks to its revolutionary form factor and a superior picture performance delivered by OLED technology. Even so, the potential of foldables to revive the display space is likely to bring about disruptive changes, especially to the market for smart handheld devices.

Various types of foldable displays have been developed to date. A list of these devices can be found in the IHS Markit report, Samsung and Huawei Foldable Displays - Special Report - 2019. Overall, several players—including the likes of South Korean giants Samsung Display and LG Display, China's BOE and Visionox, and Taiwan's AUO—are all working currently on their own versions of the foldable display. Each brand has its own concept and unique specifications to match, most notably in thickness and bending radius—two key variables for improving mobility in foldable displays.

Most current developments on the foldable display have chosen to focus on a form factor combining that of a smartphone and a tablet PC. Yet display makers are not in a hurry to launch foldable displays for the end-market because of formidable production challenges, says the IHS Markit Display Dynamics insight article, Will foldable OLED displays arrive in 2018?

The reasons are many, as can be gleaned from the discussion below.

Ultra-thin but robust display structure
To achieve the "foldable" feature for displays, the display technology deployed must be flexible OLED. This is because LCD—the traditional technology utilized for display panels in general—cannot be applied to a foldable display's flexible substrate.

Moreover, the material for the display substrate in foldables must be polyimide—a film-like polymer with high heat resistance—instead of glass, the conventional component in non-foldable panels. And for smartphone applications, a foldable touch panel and robust cover window are necessary.

On top of these requirements, the entire display structure—consisting of the display and touch module—must possess a thickness level measuring less than 1.0 mm and accommodate a bending radius of 1.5 mm. Given the numerous semiconductors, transistors, chemical layers, and optical film layers that are placed on the top of the display substrate, each layer must be extremely thin so that the total thickness comes out to less than 1.0 mm. This, indeed, poses a major challenge to display design capabilities, since consumers are not interested in thick foldable displays.

Design and structure also matter. Foldable displays from Samsung devices are thinner because Samsung uses a so-called "in-fold" design. Meanwhile, an "out-fold" design makes foldable displays thicker from Samsung competitor Royole—a company with sales and marketing offices in North America and Europe, and has manufacturing sites in China. Of the two, Samsung's "in-fold" design is harder to manufacture. Analysis on this topic can be found in two Display Dynamics articles,Foldable OLED display prototypes from BOE, LG Display, and Samsung Display, and Royole announces foldable smartphone FlexPai with self-supplied AMOLED.

New materials for foldable OLED and touch cover panels
Foldable displays also need to be reliable, requiring new materials for the display as well as for the foldable touch panel. These new materials are the colorless polyimide and hard coat for covering and strengthening the cover window that protects the display; the multi-buffer and cushion for improved flexibility; and the specialized TFT in the backplane for greater reliability.

The figure below shows the characteristics of these new materials.

Manufacturing yield rate and reliability
Owing to the thin structure of foldable displays and the complexities of a still-immature process, the current yield rate for foldable displays is less than 30% on average—well below that of standard smartphone OLED displays at 60-70%.

Among display manufacturers, the yield rate of Samsung Display may be superior to that of its competitors given Samsung's experience in the process and in equipment overall. Other display makers, lacking Samsung's advantages, will have a difficult time matching the South Korean giant's production yield.

For displays, reliability is indicated by the number of times the screen can be folded and unfolded before it malfunctions. So far, there is no consensus on what this number should be in assessing durability because foldable devices have yet to be mass-produced. Nonetheless, the general assumption is that foldable displays should withstand more than 200,000 instances of folding and unfolding, with the display and touch panel or cover window still functioning following that level of usage. Anything less makes for an undesirable foldable display.

To guarantee a reliability measure of 200,000 times is another major challenge for foldable displays, as shown by analysis in the IHS Markit report, AMOLED & Foldable/Rollable Display Technology Trend - 2019.

High costs overall
The cost of producing foldable displays is high, and the elevated cost is a direct result of the abovementioned factors that already make production challenging to begin with: the thinner structure required for foldable displays, the new materials involved, the complexity of the manufacturing process, the low manufacturing yield, and the issue of reliability.

According to the OLED Display Cost Model, a standard 7.3" QHD OLED display costs $50—$35 for the display and $15 for the touch model. In comparison, a foldable 7.3" WQHD OLED foldable display costs $100—$70 for the display and $25 for the touch module $25. As shown by these figures, the cost of the touch module for foldable displays is considerably higher than that in a standard non-foldable display.

As described in the Display Dynamics piece, Cost analysis for different foldable touch solutions, the cost of foldable displays can be lofty with the use of special materials. While no foldable displays have been mass-produced, two options are considered viable as touch solutions for foldables. These two—metal mesh and silver nanowire—will contribute to the higher cost of foldables. To this end, Samsung Display has a distinct advantage in that it does not require either of the two materials as a touch solution. This is because Samsung uses its own patented Y-OCTA touch solution, which dispenses with the additional film substrate required by non-Y-OCTA solutions.

A customized supply chain
Unlike other smartphone displays, foldable displays must be custom-made. Display makers can mass-produce, say, 5.8" or 6.0" full-high-definition LCD or OLED displays, and then sell higher-end products to top-tier smartphone brands while relegating comparably lower-quality displays to second-tier or white-box brands for emerging markets.

However, no second-tier brands or white-box markets exist at present for foldable displays. The brands that will be launching foldable displays are leading names in the industry, including stalwarts like Samsung, LG, Huawei, Xiaomi, and Lenovo. The big brands alone can do this because for foldable displays, development costs are very high and market prospects remain unclear. There is simply no precedent for such a device in the past, which makes it difficult to gauge how the market will respond if a foldable product is, in fact, launched.

Moreover, each brand has its own design and form factor, which means that display makers can develop only one model at a time for an individual brand. For investors, this singular approach in the manufacturing of a specialty product increases the risk in losing their Return on Development Investment or Return on Design-In (RODI).

This is also one reason why Royole and Samsung are adopting simultaneous roles as display maker and smartphone device-maker: the two companies can exercise greater control in the budgetary and manufacturing aspects alike of production, reducing their overall financial exposure.

But for other display makers without the abundant resources enjoyed by Royole and Samsung, the failure of a foldable display product means the manufacturer will be unable to find other customers to absorb the high development costs that had been incurred throughout the project. Inventories of a failed foldable display—already rejected by the market for whatever reason—will also be challenging to offload, exacerbating the financial woes of the maker.

One solution to potentially avert such a catastrophe is for a partnership between two entities—the foldable device-maker on the one hand, and the smart-handheld device-maker on the other, as shown in the table below. However, it remains to be seen whether such an unlikely "marriage" of rivals will work, and whether they can combine differing visions to come up with a successful product that is ultimately embraced by the market.

David Hsieh, a recipient of the distinguished title of IHS Markit Technology Fellow, is Research & Analysis Director at IHS Markit
Posted 20 March 2019

After staking out important positions in the TV and smartphone spheres, the makers of AMOLED panels are setting their sights on the automotive space to serve up better display performance and greater flexibility in design.

The move into new territory is a practical one: AMOLED capacity currently is in oversupply because of smaller-than-expected panel demand from smartphones, a market where display panels are heavily exposed and nearly saturated. In response to softening demand, panel makers are working to develop more AMOLED applications to consume the glut in capacity.

This is where automotive comes in. With their superior images, AMOLED displays are perceived by consumers to provide higher value for their cars. For car OEMs, AMOLED can provide a slim, bendable form factor with fast response times and high contrast ratios compared to TFT LCD, which are features highly appreciated in the automotive market as they provide better display performance and more fluid designability.

For these reasons, automotive has become a key growing market for the display industry. As can be seen in the graphic below, taken at SID Display Week 2018, display makers showed various AMOLED plays targeting the automotive display.

Several car makers have shown interest in AMOLED as automotive displays; among them are Volkswagen/Audi, Daimler/Mercedes-Benz, Toyota/Lexus, and GM/Chrysler. For instance, Audi in 2017 adopted a 5.7‑inch full HD (FHD) display in the A8 as its rear-seat remote display application. But according to the Automotive Display Market Tracker, the upcoming Audi e-Tron will have two 7‑inch 1280 × 800 AMOLED display panels as side-mirror displays; both are rigid AMOLED supplied by Samsung Display.

The new interest surrounding AMOLED has not been lost on domestic Chinese automobile brands, which have recently started investigating AMOLED feasibility for future models.

However, automotive displays require higher reliability requirements and a longer development cycle than in consumer electronic applications. Among the major challenges faced by AMOLED in the automotive market are color shifting over time and in high-temperature environments, as well as low brightness. Moreover, TFT LCD automotive display panel prices are dropping more quickly than ever before as many suppliers join the market, making AMOLED displays and their higher prices unpalatable in comparison.

Overall, global shipments this year of AMOLED displays for the automotive market are forecast to reach 35,000 units, according to the Automotive Display Market Tracker. By 2021, shipments worldwide will exceed 1 million units, as shown in the chart below. An additional increase in shipments is expected in 2022 as more suppliers join the market.

The current leaders in supplying AMOLED panels are the South Koreans, given that both LG Display and Samsung have been promoting AMOLED to automotive makers for many years. Samsung, which produced a small quantity of rigid AMOLED for automotive in 2017 for rear-seat remote displays, is expected to ship side-mirror displays from its Gen 4 A1 rigid AMOLED fab in late 2018. Samsung also plans to have flexible AMOLED from its A2 fab line for automotive, but it does not have any projects for now in development.

LG Display will be the second panel supplier to produce AMOLED for automotive. But unlike Samsung, LG is only at a development stage for flexible plastic OLED, manufacturing the material at the company's E2 fab as samples. LG then plans to mass-produce at its E5 fab in the second half of 2019. AMOLED has become important to LG Display to differentiate its offerings from that of other panel suppliers and to win the premium market.

For their part, Taiwanese panel suppliers lack the resources to invest in AMOLED and will focus instead on mini-LED or micro-LED solutions. JOLED, working with Denso, plans to deploy its inkjet printing technology for automotive displays in 2022. The Chinese panel makers, meanwhile, are gradually ramping up capacity, aiming to join the small circle of AMOLED makers in 2020. The Chinese panel makers that have shown interest in expanding their AMOLED business to automotive include BOE, Tianma, Visionox and EverDisplay.

The table below shows the current suppliers of AMOLED products for automotive, as well as the fab lines of suppliers, and the development status of specific products for use in automotive.

David Hsieh is Research & Analysis Director within the IHS Technology Group at IHS Markit
Posted 19 September 2018

MWC Barcelona—or Mobile World Congress, as it used to be called—is the world's largest mobile event, each year gathering more than 2,400 companies to showcase new, cutting-edge innovation and technology. Below is a sampling of Market Insight articles from IHS Markit analysts who attended the show this year; excerpts from each analyst commentary are included.

Abel Nevarez
Wi-Fi activity at MWC spotlights Wi-Fi/5G coexistence
This year's MWC Barcelona event was an important gathering place for the mobile industry, playing host to an interesting dialogue about the future of mobile connectivity. Of course, 5G was the focus of MWC, but a few other topics managed to be part of the overall mobile discussion—Wi-Fi in particular managed to shine through the deluge of 5G announcements. (Open to HS Markit subscribers only)

Richard Webb
MWC 2019: 5G x-haul roundup
Once more unto the breach—that being Barcelona—for the annual trading of knowledge, ideas, contacts, and contracts that is Mobile World Congress… the industry is once again undergoing profound changes, this time driven by the onset of the 5G era and all that it promises (though whether it will deliver is a debate for another time). One particular area undergoing much evolution is my primary area of market coverage: mobile backhaul. (Subscribers only)

Stéphane Téral and Stelyana Baleva
MWC 2019: 5G is at the top of the digital transformation agenda
With the world gearing up for a massive increase in IoT devices and the building of 5G networks, what we heard at Mobile World Congress this year is that OSS/BSS vendors are welcoming the new requirements with 5G-ready cloud platforms that facilitate service providers' network virtualization process. Every service provider we've spoken with is involved in a network function virtualization project, and a few of them, including AT&T and Telefónica, are ahead of the process with large digital transformation initiatives. (Subscribers only)

Christian Kim
MWC 2019: Cellular IoT industry facing many opportunities and challenges
At MWC Barcelona in late February, in addition to the highly covered 5G standard, the NB-IoT and the Cellular Vehicle-to-Vehicle (C-V2X) standards also demonstrated significant progress in the cellular IoT space. (Open to all)

Wayne Lam, Jusy Hong, Gerrit Schneemann, Anna Ahrens
MWC 2019 Highlights - Smartphones
5G handsets arrived in Barcelona in force. Leading up to MWC, Samsung announced two 5G devices and Huawei one model. Other OEMs, like OPPO, Xiaomi, LG, ZTE and Nubia, showed upcoming devices.

Stéphane Téral
The great 5G fanfare at MWC 2019
After a first cut at 6G, let's come back to the highlight of the show. As usual, Nokia CEO Rajeev Suri kicked off the event with his traditional keynote Sunday afternoon. Of course, he didn't miss the chance to remind the audience that his company was the only one available in all geographies across the world. As we all know, Huawei is banned in the US market—although they have a small presence in rural America—but this statement prompted us to wonder where Ericsson wasn't present. Anyway, everyone sees 2019 shaping up as a big year for 5G, so here is a summary of the world's three largest RAN vendors' war of 5G claims. (Subscribers only)

Stéphane Téral
MWC19: The 6G discussion has officially started
Despite the buzz around foldable smartphones and 5G, the world's brightest minds gathered to brainstorm about what's beyond 5G. (Participants came from the world) of academia, mostly from Finland's University of Oulu; leading mobile network equipment vendors, including Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia Bell Labs, Samsung, and ZTE; and service providers, including China Telecom, Orange, and NTT DOCOMO. (Subscribers only)

Wayne Lam
Mobile World Congress 2019: A veritable parade of new 5G smartphones and modems
Mobile World Congress 2019 was anticipated to showcase brand new 5G smartphone designs. And the conference did not disappoint. Even before the show officially started, there were 6 smartphone designs with 5G modems already announced. During the show, Chinese OEMs ZTE and Nubia would also debut their first 5G designs. (Subscribers only)

Wayne Lam
Mobile World Congress 2019: Foldable form factors steal the show
Foldable phones represent the first significant change in mobile form factor in nearly a decade. Not since the capacitive multi-touch technology which allowed devices makers to simplify all user interactions onto a single piece of glass has there been a more groundbreaking mobile design. (Open to all)

Anna Ahrens
HMD/Nokia is keeping the focus on emerging markets
HMD/Nokia's announcement at MWC 2019 clearly defines the strategic focus of the company for the coming year, which is the expansion of its presence in the emerging markets, building on its existing brand image and cooperation with Google. To serve that price-driven volume market, HMD/Nokia introduced four new models in the lower-end price segment under $200. (Open to all)

Brian Huh
Sony introduces 21:9 CinemaWide displays at MWC 2019
To differentiate itself from competitors, Sony is adopting the 21:9 CinemaWide display for its 2019 flagship smartphones and also focusing more on entertainment and multimedia applications. (Subscribers only)

Jerry Kang, David Hsieh, Charles Annis
Samsung and Huawei Foldable Displays - Special Report - 2019
At MWC 2019, Samsung and Huawei announced their first smartphone with a foldable display. The Samsung Galaxy Fold and Huawei Mate X represent the new form factor and include new technologies featuring flexible OLED displays. (Subscribers only)

IHS Markit Technology Expert
Posted 6 March 2019

Editor's note: This new blog is from our regular contributor David Hsieh, who was recently named IHS Markit Technology Fellow—one of only 11 titles awarded by the company in recognition of our most respected and experienced analysts.

At the recent MWC 2019, a conference dedicated to mobile technologies, attendees had a chance to glimpse foldable displays in a number of exhibits. According to analysis from the AMOLED & Flexible Display Intelligence Service, the foldable display could well rejuvenate the display industry—thanks to its revolutionary form factor and a superior picture performance delivered by OLED technology. Even so, the potential of foldables to revive the display space is likely to bring about disruptive changes, especially to the market for smart handheld devices.

Various types of foldable displays have been developed to date. A list of these devices can be found in the IHS Markit report, Samsung and Huawei Foldable Displays - Special Report - 2019. Overall, several players—including the likes of South Korean giants Samsung Display and LG Display, China's BOE and Visionox, and Taiwan's AUO—are all working currently on their own versions of the foldable display. Each brand has its own concept and unique specifications to match, most notably in thickness and bending radius—two key variables for improving mobility in foldable displays.

Most current developments on the foldable display have chosen to focus on a form factor combining that of a smartphone and a tablet PC. Yet display makers are not in a hurry to launch foldable displays for the end-market because of formidable production challenges, says the IHS Markit Display Dynamics insight article, Will foldable OLED displays arrive in 2018?

The reasons are many, as can be gleaned from the discussion below.

Ultra-thin but robust display structure
To achieve the "foldable" feature for displays, the display technology deployed must be flexible OLED. This is because LCD—the traditional technology utilized for display panels in general—cannot be applied to a foldable display's flexible substrate.

Moreover, the material for the display substrate in foldables must be polyimide—a film-like polymer with high heat resistance—instead of glass, the conventional component in non-foldable panels. And for smartphone applications, a foldable touch panel and robust cover window are necessary.

On top of these requirements, the entire display structure—consisting of the display and touch module—must possess a thickness level measuring less than 1.0 mm and accommodate a bending radius of 1.5 mm. Given the numerous semiconductors, transistors, chemical layers, and optical film layers that are placed on the top of the display substrate, each layer must be extremely thin so that the total thickness comes out to less than 1.0 mm. This, indeed, poses a major challenge to display design capabilities, since consumers are not interested in thick foldable displays.

Design and structure also matter. Foldable displays from Samsung devices are thinner because Samsung uses a so-called "in-fold" design. Meanwhile, an "out-fold" design makes foldable displays thicker from Samsung competitor Royole—a company with sales and marketing offices in North America and Europe, and has manufacturing sites in China. Of the two, Samsung's "in-fold" design is harder to manufacture. Analysis on this topic can be found in two Display Dynamics articles,Foldable OLED display prototypes from BOE, LG Display, and Samsung Display, and Royole announces foldable smartphone FlexPai with self-supplied AMOLED.

New materials for foldable OLED and touch cover panels
Foldable displays also need to be reliable, requiring new materials for the display as well as for the foldable touch panel. These new materials are the colorless polyimide and hard coat for covering and strengthening the cover window that protects the display; the multi-buffer and cushion for improved flexibility; and the specialized TFT in the backplane for greater reliability.

The figure below shows the characteristics of these new materials.

Manufacturing yield rate and reliability
Owing to the thin structure of foldable displays and the complexities of a still-immature process, the current yield rate for foldable displays is less than 30% on average—well below that of standard smartphone OLED displays at 60-70%.

Among display manufacturers, the yield rate of Samsung Display may be superior to that of its competitors given Samsung's experience in the process and in equipment overall. Other display makers, lacking Samsung's advantages, will have a difficult time matching the South Korean giant's production yield.

For displays, reliability is indicated by the number of times the screen can be folded and unfolded before it malfunctions. So far, there is no consensus on what this number should be in assessing durability because foldable devices have yet to be mass-produced. Nonetheless, the general assumption is that foldable displays should withstand more than 200,000 instances of folding and unfolding, with the display and touch panel or cover window still functioning following that level of usage. Anything less makes for an undesirable foldable display.

To guarantee a reliability measure of 200,000 times is another major challenge for foldable displays, as shown by analysis in the IHS Markit report, AMOLED & Foldable/Rollable Display Technology Trend - 2019.

High costs overall
The cost of producing foldable displays is high, and the elevated cost is a direct result of the abovementioned factors that already make production challenging to begin with: the thinner structure required for foldable displays, the new materials involved, the complexity of the manufacturing process, the low manufacturing yield, and the issue of reliability.

According to the OLED Display Cost Model, a standard 7.3" QHD OLED display costs $50—$35 for the display and $15 for the touch model. In comparison, a foldable 7.3" WQHD OLED foldable display costs $100—$70 for the display and $25 for the touch module $25. As shown by these figures, the cost of the touch module for foldable displays is considerably higher than that in a standard non-foldable display.

As described in the Display Dynamics piece, Cost analysis for different foldable touch solutions, the cost of foldable displays can be lofty with the use of special materials. While no foldable displays have been mass-produced, two options are considered viable as touch solutions for foldables. These two—metal mesh and silver nanowire—will contribute to the higher cost of foldables. To this end, Samsung Display has a distinct advantage in that it does not require either of the two materials as a touch solution. This is because Samsung uses its own patented Y-OCTA touch solution, which dispenses with the additional film substrate required by non-Y-OCTA solutions.

A customized supply chain
Unlike other smartphone displays, foldable displays must be custom-made. Display makers can mass-produce, say, 5.8" or 6.0" full-high-definition LCD or OLED displays, and then sell higher-end products to top-tier smartphone brands while relegating comparably lower-quality displays to second-tier or white-box brands for emerging markets.

However, no second-tier brands or white-box markets exist at present for foldable displays. The brands that will be launching foldable displays are leading names in the industry, including stalwarts like Samsung, LG, Huawei, Xiaomi, and Lenovo. The big brands alone can do this because for foldable displays, development costs are very high and market prospects remain unclear. There is simply no precedent for such a device in the past, which makes it difficult to gauge how the market will respond if a foldable product is, in fact, launched.

Moreover, each brand has its own design and form factor, which means that display makers can develop only one model at a time for an individual brand. For investors, this singular approach in the manufacturing of a specialty product increases the risk in losing their Return on Development Investment or Return on Design-In (RODI).

This is also one reason why Royole and Samsung are adopting simultaneous roles as display maker and smartphone device-maker: the two companies can exercise greater control in the budgetary and manufacturing aspects alike of production, reducing their overall financial exposure.

But for other display makers without the abundant resources enjoyed by Royole and Samsung, the failure of a foldable display product means the manufacturer will be unable to find other customers to absorb the high development costs that had been incurred throughout the project. Inventories of a failed foldable display—already rejected by the market for whatever reason—will also be challenging to offload, exacerbating the financial woes of the maker.

One solution to potentially avert such a catastrophe is for a partnership between two entities—the foldable device-maker on the one hand, and the smart-handheld device-maker on the other, as shown in the table below. However, it remains to be seen whether such an unlikely "marriage" of rivals will work, and whether they can combine differing visions to come up with a successful product that is ultimately embraced by the market.

David Hsieh, a recipient of the distinguished title of IHS Markit Technology Fellow, is Research & Analysis Director at IHS Markit
Posted 20 March 2019

We have investigated network functions virtualization (NFV) and its software-defined networking (SDN) companion for the past five years as they have become the hottest topics in telecom. Service provider networks are complex: they have seven layers, feature multiple network domain types including consumer broadband, business VPNs, mobile and mobile backhaul-to name a few, and carry multiple services such as broadband, layer 2 VPNs, layer 3 VPNs, and optical transport. Providers believe that NFV and SDN are a fundamental change in telecom network architecture that will deliver benefits in new service agility and revenue, operational efficiencies, and capex savings.

Academic beginnings, early successes in carrier environments

From its academic beginnings at Stanford University in 2005 to practical applications in data centers and telecommunications carrier networks during the past four years, SDN has shown the potential to solve significant operational problems. The early successes by Google in data centers and by NTT in the carrier environment have inspired service providers around the world to invest time and effort into laboratory proof of concept (PoC) projects for specific SDN target network domains and use cases using the inter-related "partner" NFV.

And carriers everywhere are moving toward NFV, as illustrated by our 2015 survey of worldwide service providers that control over 43% of global telecom capex and 39% of revenue. One of our key findings was that all major operators are either now deploying NFV or plan to within the next few years. Our research in this and other studies indicates that two primary factors are driving service providers to SDN and NFV: service agility that results in quicker time to revenue and operational efficiency.

For the most part, carriers are starting small with their NFV and SDN deployments and focusing on only parts of their network, on limited services, or with a limited number customers, which we call "contained domains," to ensure they can get the technology to work as intended. And though momentum is strong, it will still be many years before bigger parts or a whole network is controlled by SDNs.

Top four NFV use cases and deployment timing

The network industry is very interested in how NFV will be deployed, the use cases, and where in the network operators will make their initial investments. A majority of operators are clear about where they intend to deploy NFV and how these solutions will be used.

Some of the earliest NFV deployments in the 2015-2016 timeframe are for business virtual enterprise customer premises equipment (vE-CPE), also known as "vBranch." The business vE-CPE use case stood out as the strongest among all others in the survey, with 64% of our carriers planning to deploy in this immediate timeframe. Carriers view vE-CPE as the top use case for revenue generation, gaining operational efficiency, and reducing capex.

Service chaining is a horizontal use case where virtual network functions (VNFs) are combined in different sequences to deliver customer-specific services. We expect that eventually nearly every NFV deployment will involve service chaining.

The European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) defined nine use cases for NFV, including several that are used to offer services to enterprises. The chart below, which is sorted by popularity and time, shows the top four use cases for early deployment in 2015-2016 as identified by carriers participating in our study. These remain the top use cases for 2017 and later.

© 2015 IHS, NFV Strategies Global Service Provider Survey, May 2015

1 - Business virtual enterprise CPE (vE-CPE)

Virtual enterprise CPE (vE-CPE) is where network functions such as firewalls, wide area network (WAN) optimization control, and intrusion detection systems that are today typically deployed in boxes at each customer premises are offered as VNFs executing on commercial servers. Service chaining can optionally be used, and virtual provider edge (vPE) router software could be used.

2 - Service chaining

Service chaining is a technique to execute a selected set of services that a customer has signed up for. For example, a customer may choose among a set of virtual firewall (vFW), virtual intrusion prevention system (vIPS), and virtual WAN optimization controller (vWOC) options for say, vFW2, vIPS3, vWOC1. These services can be executed on the customer's traffic via service chaining. Some vendors use vPE software in their service chaining products.

3 - Virtual network platform as a service (vNPaaS)

Virtual network platform as a service (vNPaaS) is in essence a logical slice of a physical and virtual network that looks and acts like a private physical network to the application (for example, Internet of Things) or customer. Specifically, it provides a toolkit for conveniently developing, deploying, and administering application software that is structured to support large numbers of subscribers, process large quantities of data, and potentially be accessed via the internet. In this case, the service provider provides a toolkit of networking and computing infrastructure as well as potentially some VNFs as a platform for the creation of a virtual network-that is, a vNPaaS. Enterprise consumers of this service use that toolkit to develop their own virtual networks.

4 - Virtual provider edge router (vPE)

The virtual provider edge router (vPE) sits at the point of the "IP edge," which is the point in an operator network where IP VPNs, content delivery networks (CDNs), and other IP services are delivered via the access network to customers.

Bottom line

We are in the early stages of a long-term transition to SDN-NFV architected networks. A lot continues to be learned as each year passes, and various barriers and drivers have become more prominent as operators get closer to commercial deployment.

Market research is very useful to determine current buyer thinking, and some of the top NFV use cases have changed positions in the last couple of years and may settle in for fewer changes in positions by 2016.

Carriers will learn that some avenues are not as fruitful as expected, and telecom equipment manufacturers and software suppliers may well invent new approaches that open up new applications. We are, of course, conducting an NFV survey again this year, and it will be interesting to see what new issues emerge and which problems get resolved in the additional commercial deployments planned for 2016.

If you're interested in hearing more about the experiences, lessons, and discoveries from service provider deployments of vE-CPE and vCPE, be sure to watch the replay of our recent webinar on Carrier NFV and SDN Lessons from Virtual CPE Deployments.

Michael Howard is a Senior Research Director and Advisor for Carrier Networks at IHS Markit
Posted on 12 April 2016

By definition, the total cost of ownership (TCO) of a system is a financial estimate aimed at helping the owner determine all costs associated with the system, direct and indirect. Applied to distributed antenna systems (DAS), the TCO is the sum of the capital and operational expenditures detailed in the Exhibit below. Capital expenditures are funds used by the company to either acquire or upgrade a DAS system, while operational expenditures represent the cost of running the DAS system.

Large mobile operators such as AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless have been using DAS for the past two decades to improve network coverage in venues where the traditional macrocell approach does not work. In recent years, driven by a major telecom restructuring in 2008, China rose quickly to significance and became the world's second-largest DAS market after the US. As mobile networks have migrated from 2G to 3G and 4G, DAS architectures have evolved from passive to active, in which repeaters are replaced with low power remote radio heads connected to the DAS hub and capacity is added to handle the new demands of mobile smartphones.

However, the unabated smartphone-generated traffic growth experienced at major events such as the Super Bowl and the FIFA World Cup keeps mobile operators and venue owners busy with major network upgrades to stay ahead of the curve. Alternatives to offload traffic from the cellular network-such as WiFi, and more recently, small cells that densify existing macrocell networks-have been threatening the well-established DAS option, pushing major DAS players to innovate and find new ways to stay competitive. As cost is always the decisive factor, a framework is needed that starts from a tactical analysis of the total cost of DAS ownership and addresses the most significant cost points through innovative DAS designs and features.

IHS just published a technology paper that shows how DAS innovation can substantially address major cost points in capex and opex and ultimately lead to a lower TCO.

Topics covered in the paper include:

• TCO reduction starts with tactical DAS capex and opex analysis
• Optimizing DAS equipment installation time and cost and minimizing footprint can significantly decrease capex
• Five features that optimize DAS installation time and cost
• But alternate deployment models such as centralized DAS (C-DAS) lower capex and opex substantially
• Then, high signal quality and operation and maintenance tools will contribute to lower opex
• And finally, for enterprise applications, femto/microcells can certainly bring a compelling low cost variation to DAS

The DAS paper can be downloaded here: on.ihs.com/27B2F5Z

Stéphane Téral is a Sr. research director, mobile infrastructure & carrier economics for IHS
Posted on 19 May 2016

Tata Power, a subsidiary of Tata Group in India, has signed an agreement with Welspun Group, India, to acquire its subsidiary Welspun Renewables Energy Pvt Ltd.

Estimated at US$1.4 billion (INR 10,000 crore), this deal includes solar projects capable of generating 0.9 GW of power, making it one of the largest solar deals in India in terms of solar capacity. The deal also includes 0.14 GW of wind power-generating projects. This acquisition reinforces the following trends for the Indian solar power market:

• A shift in industry focus to solar power and away from hydro and wind power
• Consolidation in the solar power industry
• A commitment to achieving the National Solar Mission target

Solar power capacity in India has grown rapidly over the last three years from 0.31 GW in July 2013 to 7.56 GW in May 2016. Between November 2015 to May 2016 alone, India added 0.5 GW of solar power capacity every month. Among the 29 states, Rajasthan leads with 1.28 GW of solar power capacity, followed by Tamil Nadu at 1.26 GW and Gujarat at 1.12 GW, according to IHS Markit data.

For Tata Power, solar capacity accounted for only 5% of its renewable energy portfolio prior to the Welspun acquisition. Post-acquisition, IHS Markit estimates that solar capacity will comprise 44% of Tata Power's renewable energy portfolio.

IHS Markit expects consolidation to continue in the Indian solar power industry. Driven by growth prospects and the favorable investment environment in the industry, multinational power companies and equipment manufacturers are expanding their operations in India by acquiring local companies as well as partnering with local engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) companies. For example, Hong Kong-based CLP Group has acquired a 49% stake in Suzlon's 100 MW projects in Telangana, India. Meanwhile, Suzlon has acquired five solar companies in India-Gale Solarfarms, Tornado Solarfarms, Abha Solarfarms, Aalok Solarfarms and Shreyas Solarfarms-to work as an EPC, and also an operations and maintenance (O&M) company for several renewable energy projects across India.

The solar power industry in India is getting a boost from the attractive incentives and policies initiated by the government of India. As part of its National Solar Mission to achieve 100 GW of power generation capacity by 2022, the government has sanctioned land for setting up 33 new solar parks across 27 states in India, accounting towards 20 GW of this capacity. Furthermore, a Central Finance Assistance fund of US$600.1 million (INR 4,050 crore) has been created for the initial development of these solar parks.

With an ambitious solar power capacity target and good policies in place, India is on its way to becoming one of the leading solar power producers in the world.

Vinita Jakhanwal is a Senior Director for IHS
Posted on 18 July 2016

The rumour mill is churning with the possibility of the takeover of Netflix by US studio major Disney. On the surface, the acquisition of a high-potential service such as Netflix seems appealing, but not all would be rosy.

Disney is already invested in online tech infrastructure via Major League Baseball's (MLB) BAMTech and has specifically cited interest in streaming at scale as its rationale for investment. In the US, this has obvious synergies with bundling other premium Disney brands, making a takeover of Netflix for its technology much less compelling.

Netflix would also be overpriced for Disney. As so much of Netflix's worth is based on current growth trajectories and future potential, in order to capture value Disney would have to ensure that Netflix's performance remains strong under new management. Given the controls placed on small business units within umbrella corporations, it seems unlikely that such an arrangement could be feasible.

While the reasons above greatly reduce the likelihood of such a takeover from happening, there are a number of reasons why an acquisition would benefit Disney, especially for international expansion.

What interest does a studio have in SVoD?

Disney has a history of building strong consumer brands and premium franchises-and not just those directly related to the mouse. ESPN, MLB and "Star Wars" are great examples where Disney has recognised brand power and used its experience to really leverage profits over a number of different verticals. Netflix is now a household name for in-home streaming-having made a global mark in in Subscription Video on Demand (SVoD)-and it fits well with Disney's strategy, since the idea of in-home video streaming is now synonymous with Netflix.

Disney has also been increasingly looking at using online delivery to directly monetize the company's intellectual property, bypassing third parties and maintaining not only a direct relationship with the consumer but also control of the user experience. This is evidenced by Disney moving online with DisneyLife in the UK, as well as the growing independence of ESPN. A deal with Netflix would mean gaining a lot of hard-won lessons, infrastructure and streaming technology, giving Disney further options for online rollout, including international expansion.

How would a Netflix takeover mesh with Disney's pay TV business?

Although Disney operates in the pay TV space, it is not beholden to the pay TV industry. Instead it has always existed and operated across the home entertainment spectrum. Disney is probably the most hands-on of all studios when it comes to consumer relations-meaning it would be more than capable of taking control of the SVoD window, especially given the technical backing that Netflix would bring. There is also evidence suggesting that Disney's recent deals to monetize its online assets have been less than satisfactory, further strengthening the case to follow pay TV disrupters, rather than traditional partners.

Many lower-cost pay TV platforms have already made the move to partner with online pay TV disrupters, including Netflix and Amazon. To some extent, a deal with Disney would restore the status quo, where pay TV operators are again dealing with content producers and top-tier aggregators, as opposed to potential competitors. For more premium partners such as Sky in the UK, this could make things a degree harder, as Disney would gain greater leverage at the negotiating table from the wider range of options that they would then hold.

But for content creators, this could spell bad news

For some content creators, especially those enjoying new-found success with Netflix, a Disney takeover could potentially make things difficult. If Disney was to become heavily involved in Netflix operations, content that competes with Disney would likely be given a back seat. However, given how carefully Disney segregates and protects its intellectual property, it is likely that a Chinese wall would exist on the consumer-facing side, if not on the technical. Netflix would largely be left to continue its operations, similar to how ESPN is run, while operational synergies would be gained on the tech front in light of playout and knowledge sharing.

What would this mean for Netflix?

In short, disaster.

While Netflix would likely be left alone to run as a business unit, it would be exactly that: a small unit within a large umbrella organisation. Netflix has a hugely entrepreneurial spirit and a record of taking the uncompromisingly hard road to support strategy, as evidenced by the canning of a small piece of hardware, which became the Roku box and Now TV.

Furthermore, if Netflix existed as a business unit restrained by externally imposed targets and margins, the company would be unlikely to maintain its current level of operational risk and experimentation, and Netflix talent would recognise this. Under a Disney ownership, Netflix would be maintained as a top-class SVoD service, but gone would be the world-beating, risk-taking, disruptive start-up that shook the world of pay TV.

Jonathan Broughton is Senior Analyst for Video Intelligence within the IHS Technology Group at IHS Markit
Maria Rua Aguete, Director for TV Media Intelligence within the IHS Technology Group at IHS Markit, also contributed to this analysis
Posted 7 October 2016

With digitization transforming and disrupting businesses everywhere, there is tremendous pressure to change and adapt, especially for enterprise information technology (IT) departments.

A key part of change is the need for greater agility and faster adoption of new technology. Both of these agents drive the off-premises cloud market, while also altering the architecture of on-premises data centers or private clouds to include orchestration for the automatic deployment of workloads.

To achieve success, a key takeaway for businesses is to rethink IT, shifting reliance from traditional data-center models to new mechanisms like the cloud.

Growth all around

In assessing just how fast transformation is occurring within the space, one only has to look at the rate of growth projected for the next few years ahead.

The market for off-premises cloud services is forecast for solid revenue growth of approximately 30% year-over-year in the near term, with strong expansion to continue through 2021. The market's increase is due to larger portions of enterprise IT budgets being allocated to off-premises cloud services.

Within the off-premises cloud computing market also exists a variety of services, such as infrastructure as a service (IaaS), platform as a service (PaaS), cloud as a service (CaaS), and software as a service (SaaS). All of these are needed, because each provides unique compute capabilities that, in turn, drive the use of multiple cloud service providers within one enterprise.

As the use of off-premises cloud services moves from the early adopters to mainstream buyers, many traditional software vendors have also begun to complement their original software licensing model with SaaS options. A great deal of innovation can be expected in the CaaS and PaaS sectors as well, IHS Markit believes.

Among North American enterprises, respondents in an IHS Markit survey conducted in mid-2016 said that on average 14% of their IT budget in 2016 was spent on off-premises cloud services, up from 11% in 2015. This year, that figure is anticipated to rise to 17%.

The increase in the percentage of IT budgets spent on off-premises cloud services shows that more companies are employing a hybrid approach to cloud and data-center management, in which both on-premises and off-premises cloud services are used to manage IT infrastructure. This hybrid approach calls for better orchestration and application management-ideally having one view and one management tool, in order to ensure that resources are used in the most efficient way possible.

Not all clouds are created equal

In the survey, respondents also indicated using multiple cloud service providers (CSP)-six in 2016, with the number rising to 8 by 2018, IHS Markit forecasts show.

There are many reasons why enterprises will use multiple CSPs. For instance, an enterprise may choose to keep its data on customer relationship management, or CRM, in SalesForce.com, while potentially using Force.com for some analytics on the CRM data. Another enterprise may opt to use Office365, as well as Google Kubernetes and Container Engine for its containerized applications.

Overall, enterprises are not only diversifying the location of their cloud services from on-premises to off-premises, they are also growing the number of CSPs used to manage their IT needs. This means that with enterprises needing to manage workloads across multiple CSP data centers, they must be able to control for costs and optimal user experience, at the same time providing a development environment that promotes agility and collaboration across the organization.

For developers needing a new and collaborative environment, a bigger rollout of containerized servers can be expected. Here enterprise respondents indicated a significant increase in usage-from 4% in 2016 to 8% in 2018. This shows the increasing deployment of micro-service architecture for rapid application building-an important component toward achieving a so-called DevOps culture of collaboration and communication among software developers and IT professionals, as well as a central goal for IT teams when deploying across multiple clouds.

From off-premises cloud computing to multi-clouds

For those who have been following the market for some time, a clear shift can be discerned during these last few years.

While the emphasis in 2014-15 was on agile computing, enterprises starting in 2016 and for the first part of this year have gravitated toward using more than one cloud service provider. In the process, enterprises have effectively been creating their own so-called "meta-cloud"-in which companies can independently connect to various cloud service providers while also taking on the burden of managing the different connections involved.

IHS Markit believes that what we're seeing now, and what we'll continue to build in 2018-20, is the multi-cloud. This is the next generation of the meta-cloud, where not only are multiple cloud service providers being used, but a management and orchestration layer also becomes a key part. This entails not just having multiple CSPs managing IT infrastructure but also the ability to overlay management, which allows the enterprise to move workloads among the different cloud service providers' data centers. More importantly, such a model allows enterprises to more efficiently manage the costs incurred from their various data centers.

Moving forward to 2021 and beyond, we foresee a new layer cloud service provider, serving other cloud service providers and having very large compute farms. In this model, cloud service providers are able to purchase additional compute on a daily or hourly basis, much like how oil can be purchased on the spot market. Already, examples can be seen of cloud computing resources becoming a commodity, paving the way for how quickly application deployment can become infrastructure-agnostic.

In a market spurred and driven by both innovation and agility, many changes are sure to occur in the coming years. We'll keep you posted.

For more information:

• On this subject, listen to the webinar
• On related topics, visit our Enterprise & IT research service

Liz Cruz is Associate Director for Data Centers, Cloud & IT Infrastructure, within the IHS Technology Group at IHS Markit
Posted 2 June 2017

Amazon's $13.7 billion acquisition of Whole Foods is, by far, its biggest deal to date-an outsize gesture that manages all at once to achieve the following:

• Highlight both the breadth and focus of its strategic ambitions
• Underscore the electronic titan's need for scale to drive its grocery business
• Show the limitations of online-only retail for certain product categories

Unveiled in an announcement on June 16, Amazon's shift from online to offline via Whole Foods is not unique. Amazon's Chinese counterpart Alibaba pursued a similar strategy with its $629 million deal in 2014 for a 35% stake in China's Intime department store chain. Last year, Alibaba spent a further $2.6 billion to complete its buyout. Similarly, Amazon has been stepping up its own physical retail presence with the rollout of dedicated brick-and-mortar bookstores, as well as testing a cashier-free grocery store called Amazon Go, open for now only to the company's employees.

Catching the fish that slipped through the net

The need for scale is central to Amazon's strategy. In its key segments, Amazon needs to extend its reach as far as possible, and the Seattle-based giant also wants to capture those parts of a customer's shopping basket that it does not currently dominate. The Whole Foods deal not only adds more selections to Amazon's current offerings, it also allows the e-commerce titan to provide a more complete buyer experience, from online to offline and vice versa. Amazon's ultimate goal in this acquisition is to capture the customers and products that have, somehow, slipped through the net.

To be sure, Amazon has attempted to make inroads into the grocery business for some time now but has met with mixed success. Its Amazon Fresh food delivery has not enjoyed the same triumph as the company's traditional online retail and vastly popular Prime services. The Whole Foods deal shows that the grocery business is different. The fast-moving perishable nature of the products being sold demands a different approach, and is one that can be better-run through a combination of local stores and online ordering rather than on the large centralised warehouses relied upon by Amazon's other commercial operations.

Whole Foods could be just the first vertical in the offline business that Amazon ventures into. Footwear, clothing, and electronic devices could all be good options as well for Amazon to acquire in the future. By having both physical and online stores, customers that prefer to see physical products before purchase would then be able to try out the product first and then buy them online afterward.

The Amazon Go initiative is one such example. Its trial cashier- and checkout-free store uses "Just Walk Out Technology" to track items that have been lifted from and returned to the shelves, monitors the virtual cart, and then charges customers accordingly. Like similar efforts in the past, Amazon Go also highlights the firm's behemoth retail ambitions-and its potential to drive disruption further.

Adding more to the customer's shopping basket will also give Amazon more data

If Amazon can tie its existing customer accounts to the people who purchase at Whole Foods, Amazon will be able to support all aspects of its business by utilising the data to improve sales performance and advertising across its website or apps. "Just Walk Out" technology is a potential longer-term extension of this strategy, but the Whole Foods deal will provide Amazon with more immediate short-term gains.

Amazon's competitive threat continues to spread

Amazon is often viewed as a competitor alongside other leading technology players like Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, and Google. While it does provide services in many of the same categories as those tech giants, Amazon's competitive threat, however, spreads much further-which should stoke fear, if not admiration and awe, into many a rival's heart.

For more information on this and related topics, visit our Media & Advertising research service.

Qingzhen (Jessie) Chen is Senior Analyst, Advertising Research, within the IHS Technology Group at IHS Markit

Also contributing to this piece is Jack Kent, Director for Operators & Mobile Media, likewise with the IHS Technology Group at IHS Markit

Posted 23 June 2017

Mipcom, which ran from 16-19 October in Cannes, France, is the major gathering place for buyers and sellers of TV programming. This year's market and conference highlighted TV drama programming, which is rising high on a wave of investment from online platforms and premium pay-TV channels and others. The growing influence of online platforms was also apparent, with Facebook presenting its video strategy and Snap announcing an agreement with NBC Universal.

On the drama front, there were premiere screenings of new dramas from Telefonica, Sky, and Germany's Beta Film. While Sony Pictures showcased a new 10-part drama called "Counterpart," and all the US studios were present (Disney no longer goes to the other Mip event in April), the US was somewhat overshadowed by its European counterparts.

Mipcom's organisers Reed Midem announced a new event called Canneseries, which will take place in Cannes from 4 April next year and will last a week. With a budget of €4 million, the event will include screenings open to the public, and an official competition presided over by an international jury will present 10 original series. An awards ceremony will close the event on 11 April, to be broadcast live on Canal Plus.

At this year's conference, HBO chief executive Richard Plepler spoke about the US premium channel's decision two years ago to launch its direct-to-consumer service, HBO Now. This year, claimed Plepler, has so far seen the biggest subscriber growth in HBO's history. International rollout is taking shape in three ways: the launch of linear channels, output 'home of HBO' deals in 17 countries, and HBO Now. Plepler announced plans to launch a single global direct-to-consumer platform in the first half of 2018, adding that HBO plans to increase investment in original content outside the US and to offer a selection of these to US viewers on an on-demand basis.

Other signs that the axis of the global TV business has shifted slightly could be picked up in conference sessions. Middle Eastern drama producers spoke about the phenomenal success of "Al Hayba," a drama produced in Lebanon, throughout the Arabic-speaking world. Producers are now setting their sights on wider exports, with many holding up the Netflix series "Narcos"-filmed in Spanish and English-as an example of the way to go. In another session, Turkish drama producer Inter Medya said it plans to make drama shows with fewer and shorter episodes in order to boost sales in parts of the world like Western Europe.

An appearance at the conference by Facebook's video production director and head of creative strategy indicated how the social media platform is planning to develop the role of video. Facebook said that 50% of all mobile data traffic is going to video, an amount that would increase to 75% in the next few years. It was noticeable that all of the video Facebook presented in its session was displayed on a vertical, mobile screen. While Facebook Watch (launched only in the US so far) is only a few weeks old, the video service is to be rolled out internationally, with its first scripted commission-a version of the Norwegian show "Skam"-to be co-produced with Simon Fuller.

The rise of social video was reinforced by Sean Mills, director of content for Snap Inc., who announced a joint venture with NBC Universal for scripted shows. Mills highlighted how video viewing behaviour on the platform is intrinsically different from the TV set as its camera functionality encourages users to create and engage with content rather than the traditional "sit back and consume" approach. As with Facebook, a mobile-centric approach is evident from the focus on portrait videos and split screens. Storytelling on social video is also unique, emphasising the importance of engaging content and pacing in delivery. The director acknowledged that despite growth in mobile viewing, the platform remains a somewhat new medium that is often used in conjunction with the bigger screen rather than working as a substitute.

Netflix, which announced plans to increase its investment in content to $8 billion next year at its latest quarterly results, was also in evidence at Mipcom, announcing its first original children's productions in India and South Korea. Andy Yeatman, kids and family director, said that half of the 104 million homes subscribing to Netflix watch children's content every week. Viewership of children's content outside the US overtook domestic viewing in the last quarter, he added.

As a global platform, Netflix poses a challenge to the traditional, territory-based model of TV programming, which is key to the existence of get-together events like Mipcom. The programming buyer for one European public broadcaster was unhappy that international rights for two new series presented by US studios at this year's LA Screenings had already been sold to Netflix. Rights holders are also exploring cheaper ways of selling programming; Sky and Channel 4 are among the investors in TRX, an online platform for buyers and distributors.

This year a total of 13,900 delegates, including 4,800 programme buyers, attended the event, according to organizers. Both numbers were slightly lower than attendance last year.

Tim Westcott is Research & Analysis Director, Programming, within the IHS Technology Group at IHS Markit

Also contributing to this piece are Fateha Begum, Principal Analyst, Telecom Operator Strategy; and Maria Rua Aguete, Executive Director, Media, Service Providers & Platforms. Both are also with the IHS Technology Group at IHS Markit.

Posted 1 November 2017

Complimentary Content

Displays

• Apple to launch two more high-resolution MacBooks – David Hsieh
  Apple expects to release in 2018 two more 13.3-inch high-resolution, slim-bezel notebook models with oxide TFT LCD technology to cover more market segments. 
• Smartphone AMOLED display trend shifts from rigid to flexible – Calvin Hsieh
  Shipments in 2017 of flexible on-cell AMOLED display for mobile phone applications increased 154% to 96.3 million units from 37.5 million units in 2016.

Enterprise & IT

• Optical DCI market grew 26%, reaching $2.6 billion in 2017 – Heidi Adams
  Year-over-year global revenue in 2017 for optical data center interconnect (DCI) hardware grew 26%, reaching $2.6 billion. 
• Data center network equipment revenue reached $13.7 billion in 2017 – Clifford Grossner, Devan Adams 
  Revenue for data center network equipment, including data center Ethernet switches, ADCs, and SD-WAN, totaled $13.7 billion in 2017, increasing 13% over the previous year. 
• PBX market sinks 8% year over year in 2017 – Diane Myers
  A decline in on-premises private branch exchange (PBX) licenses led the global market to decrease 8% in 2017 from 2016, to $5.7 billion. 
• Best year for Ethernet switching since the recession – Matthias Machowinski
  Worldwide Ethernet switch revenue grew 2% sequentially in Q4 2017 to $6.7 billion, building off the gains from previous quarters. 
• Quarterly LED lamp retail price declines slow to -3.8% – Paul Bremner
  Global LED lamp retail prices in February were 6.3% higher than in January 2018. This increase brings global ASPs to a level only -0.9% lower than prices were in September 2017. 
• 45.4 billion internet connectable devices in 2021: changing the future of colocations – Liz Cruz
  IHS Markit forecasts internet connectable devices to grow from 27.5 billion in 2017 to 45.4 billion in 2021—a 65% increase in just four years.

Healthcare Technology

• ECR 2018 brief: AI – what is it? Augmented, adaptive, or artificial? – Kelly Patrick
  There was heightened buzz around the topic of AI at the 24th European Congress of Radiology, with many vendors citing the integration of data through AI as the next big trend. But what’s new? 
• ECR 2018: first impressions – Bhvita Jani
  ECR 2018 celebrated the diverse specialty of radiology with a symbolic Chinese red dragon centered at the entrance, capturing the enthusiasm, celebration, and passion for radiology at the Austria Centre Vienna. 
• The future of infusion pump software – can’t speak, won’t speak – Kelly Patrick
  Healthcare information is everywhere, but it is not always being used to its fullest capacity. 
• Healthcare attracts many big tech names at HIMSS 2018 – Shane Walker
  While healthcare as a vertical is not new for most of the world’s largest companies, their brand presence within the industry is significantly increasing. 
• How will the increase in global breast cancer be addressed by a decrease in false positives? – Bhvita Jani
  The countable rise of breast cancer incidence globally has heightened pressures for government screening programmes, and strengthened awareness of the benefits of breast cancer screening. 
• Medication inventory management – invasion of the robots – IHS Technology
  The uptake of medication inventory management solutions is accelerating worldwide, and the next several years are expected to see strong growth in this market.

Media & Advertising

• Dogan Holding to sell all its media properties to Demiroren Holding – Constantinos Papavassilopoulos
  Dogan Holding, the largest media group in Turkey, has confirmed that it is in talks to sell all its media assets, including the Dogan TV channel and pay-TV platform D Smart, to Demiroren Holding. 
• China is to set up a cinema network for “patriotic” films – David Hancock
  People’s Cinema Line is a government initiative aimed at creating a nationwide screen network of 5,000 screens that will favour films of a patriotic nature, including those from government departments. 
• Epic Games closes MOBA title “Paragon” but opens up assets – IHS Technology
  Epic Games has announced the closure of its multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) title “Paragon,” after nurturing it for two years in beta. 
• Mobile title Vainglory becomes part of Alibaba's WESG lineup – Chenyu Cui
  Super Evil Megacorp, the developer of Vainglory, has announced it will partner Alisports, the sports branch of Alibaba Group. 
• Monster Hunter World sets sales record for Capcom – IHS Technology
  Capcom’s Monster Hunter World, released for Xbox One and PS4 in January, has become the publisher’s best-selling title yet. 
• Cable in context: performance and prospects in the converged world – Ted Hall
  Ted Hall delivered a keynote presentation at Cable Congress 2018, which took place in Dublin on March 6-7. 
• Australia pay-TV market update for Q4 2017 – David Scott
  IHS Markit has updated its Australian pay-TV data given the latest guidance on the performance of market leader Foxtel, provided by major shareholder News Corp Australia. 
• Tencent invests in Douyu and Huya to dominate Chinese esports streaming sector – Chenyu Cui
  Huya announced it raised $461.6 million in its latest series-B funding round, which was led by Tencent on 9 March. And its major rival Douyu received an investment of $632 million from Tencent as well. 
• Discovery completes merger with Scripps to create new factual channel giant – Tim Westcott
  Discovery Communications has completed its acquisition of Scripps Networks Interactive, creating a new factual channel programmer with worldwide reach and combined 2017 revenues of $9.8 billion. 
• Sky Deutschland launches Sky Show subscription service in Switzerland – Max Signorelli
  Pay-TV operator Sky Deutschland has launched Sky Show, a new subscription video service in Switzerland. 
• Games console market 2017: Nintendo drives market to 18% growth – Piers Harding-Rolls
  While Sony remains dominant, Nintendo's Switch launch drove the market to its best performance since 2011. 
• Telecom Italia plans voluntary separation of fixed access network – James Joiner
  Telecom Italia has announced its plan to separate its fixed access network division into a new independent legal entity, known as Netco. 
• Video-streaming platform turned mobile-gaming operator Bilibili sets sights on $400 million IPO – Chenyu Cui, Kia Ling Teoh
  According to a prospectus filed on March 2, the online entertainment platform covering video, live broadcasting and mobile games plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange. 
• Chinese streaming platform iQiyi looks to raise $1.5 billion from IPO in the US – Kia Ling Teoh, Jun Wen Woo
  Chinese streaming service iQiyi last week filed a registration statement setting out plans to raise $1.5 billion from an IPO in the US. 
• Swiss vote to maintain public broadcasting – Tim Westcott
  Swiss citizens have voted overwhelmingly to continue funding public broadcaster SRG SSR though receiver fees payable by any household with a radio, TV set, or other device able to receive TV. 
• Test sites grow for LED screens in cinema – David Hancock
  Samsung’s Cinema LED screen is now established in five sites worldwide with the prospect of a further US site soon to open. 
• TDC pulls out of MTG deal after accepting takeover offer from investment consortium – Martyn Hannant
  Danish telecommunications provider TDC Group has scrapped its plan to acquire the Nordic broadcasting assets of Sweden’s Modern Times Group. 
• Sky and Netflix agree on European partnership – Jonathan Broughton, Irina Kornilova, Fateha Begum
  Pan-European pay-TV operator Sky has announced a partnership with global OTT subscription service Netflix, to make Netflix available on its DTH and OTT platforms.

Mobile & Telecom

• Optical DCI market grew 26%, reaching $2.6 billion in 2017 – Heidi Adams
  Year-over-year optical data center interconnect (DCI) hardware revenue grew by 26% globally, reaching $2.6 billion in 2017. 
• Small cell market surges in 2017, energized by rural, remote, and indoor deployments – Stephane Teral, Richard Webb
  Worldwide, 2.3 million small cell units shipped during 2017, resulting in an increase of 39% year over year. 
• Service provider VoIP and IMS down 12% in 2017 as market slows – Diane Myers
  Global service provider VoIP and IP multimedia subsystem (IMS) product revenue fell to $4.5 billion in 2017, a decline of 12% year over year. 
• PBX market sinks 8% year over year in 2017 – Diane Myers
  A decline in on-premises private branch exchange (PBX) licenses led the global market to decrease 8% in 2017 from 2016, to $5.7 billion. 
• Global mobile infrastructure market down 14% from a year ago – Stephane Teral
  For the full year 2017, global 2G/3G/LTE 2017 macro hardware revenue totaled $37.2 billion, declining 14% from $43.3 billion in 2016. 
• Best year for Ethernet switching since the recession – Matthias Machowinski
  Worldwide Ethernet switch revenue grew 2% sequentially in the Q4 2017 to $6.7 billion, building off the gains from previous quarters. 
• Cable in context: performance and prospects in the converged world – Ted Hall
  Ted Hall delivered a keynote presentation at Cable Congress 2018, which took place in Dublin on March 6-7. 
• Australia pay-TV market update for Q4 2017 – David Scott
  IHS Markit has updated its Australian pay-TV data given the latest guidance on the performance of market leader Foxtel, provided by major shareholder News Corp Australia. 
• Mobile World Congress 2018: 5G chipsets are real and launching with smartphones in time for MWC 2019 – Wayne Lam
  The latest news on the 5G chipset front from Mobile World Congress Barcelona 2018.

Mobile, Consumer & Connected Devices

• More MOCVD reactors leading to 28% GaN LED surplus in 2019 – Jamie Fox
  After assessing planned purchases by suppliers, IHS Markit projects that 330 metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) reactor chambers will be installed in 2018, to produce LEDs fabricated from gallium nitride (GaN). 
• 2018 India TV market outlook – Bing Zhang, Hisakazu Torii
  India is an important, albeit very complicated country to operate in. 
• AMS widens 3D recognition competencies with KeyLemon acquisition – Manuel Tagliavini
  The 3D face-recognition feature is also growing in popularity among Chinese handset OEMs, known for being fast followers and coming up with their own variants to cash in on new trends.

Power & Energy Technology

• European solar PV demand forecast to continue double-digit growth to reach 11 GW in 2018 – Susanne von Aichberger
  In 2017, European solar PV installations grew by 23% year-on-year to surpass 9 GW. 
• Smart metering shows the way forward for IoT adoption – David Green
  A paradox exists within the electric utility industry: Vendors and utilities are uncertain about making clear decisions for their IoT strategy, yet almost 900 million smart electricity meters will ship from 2016 to 2023.

Security Technology

• The world market for city surveillance equipment exceeded $3 billion in 2017 – Jacky Zhang
  The world market for security equipment in city surveillance has registered robust growth in the past few years, surpassing $3 billion in 2017. 
• Identity governance and administration global revenue to reach nearly $6 billion by 2021 – Don Tait
  The global identity governance and administration (IGA) market is projected to increase from $3.2 billion in 2017 to $5.8 billion in 2021. 
• Critical communications IWCE trends 2018 – Alexander Richardson, Jesus Gonzalez
  The IHS Markit Critical Communications team recently attended IWCE 2018 in Orlando, Florida. Discussions with end-users played a key role in shaping our analysis of major trends we noticed at the show. 
• MONI rebrands to BRINKS – Anna Sliwon
  Even though the purchasing of intruder alarm systems and smart security systems is increasingly a lifestyle-related choice, most customers purchasing intruder alarms are usually approached by a security provider or dealer when they move to a new area or through direct home advertising.

Subscriber Content

Displays

• Sharp Display business changes in 2018 with Foxconn adjustments – David Hsieh 
  Sakai Display Product will reduce LCD TV panel shipments from 7.0 million units in 2017 to 6.4 million in 2018. Sharp’s LCD fab plans in the US might change.
• Huawei MateBook Pro notebook with 13.9-inch LTPS TFT LCD panel – David Hsieh 
  LTPS TFT LCD has become the spec for high-end notebook panels thanks to slim bezel and low power consumption.
• Remarkable growth of OLED materials market in H2 2017 – Jimmy Kim, Ph.D. 
  Revenue for OLED materials grew 20% in the second half of 2017 after a slump that had lasted since 2016.
• BOE developed Bright View 3 for high-resolution displays – David Hsieh 
  BOER says Bright View 3 can increase resolution and improve transmittance.
• Samsung may launch micro-LED TV in H2 2018 – David Hsieh 
  Samsung exhibited a 146-inch micro-LED TV at CES 2018 and may commercialize it in H2 2018.
• Active pen specification upgrade in 2018 – Calvin Hsieh 
  The active pen has been a critical differentiating feature for tablet-PC productivity applications. In addition to the Apple Pencil for iPad Pro, Microsoft, and Google are offering pens with upgraded specifications and features.
• AUO and Innolux: Q4 2017 performance, 2018 strategy – Linda Lin 
  AUO and Innolux reported weak financial results for Q4 2017, but performed well overall in 2017.
• Good margins help Chinese TV makers increase purchases – Nick Jiang 
  With panel prices continuing to decrease, Chinese TV makers can improve their margins and still reduce TV-set prices in the end market.
• How will Chinese TV makers regain bargaining power to achieve their business plan? – Nick Jiang 
  Chinese TV makers increased purchases in Q4 2017 but may reduce panel demand again in Q1 2018.
• Samsung targets quantum-dot-on-glass for 2018 LED TV – David Hsieh 
  Instead of traditional quantum dot film on the backlight unit within the LCD TV, Samsung is revamping QLED TV to use quantum-dot-on-glass LGP.
• TV makers aggressively driving down panel prices in March – Deborah Yang 
  Price negotiations will be tough. Will panel makers cut utilization to prevent panel prices from dropping below cost?
• Flat-panel demand to grow 6.4% in 2018 – Ricky Park 
  Declining panel prices will stimulate demand, as demand for larger displays has extended to smartphones, notebooks, and monitor panels.
• Taiwanese small/medium panel supplier 2017 review and 2018 outlook – Stacy Wu 
  Taiwanese panel suppliers reported strong revenue growth and positive operating profit margins in the first half, but second-half performance was weak, mainly due to panel price erosion.

Enterprise & IT

• OFC 2018 highlights: Optical DCI leapfrog contest continues – Heidi Adams 
  The market for compact optical data center interconnect (DCI) platforms is the fastest-growing segment of the optical equipment market.
• OFC 2018: 400GbE data center optics arrive – Esther Cheh 
  One of the biggest themes at OFC 2018 was the volume of announcements around all aspects of the 400GbE client optics/transceivers ecosystem.
• The OCP’s community-driven innovation continues to spread – Clifford Grossner, Vladimir Galabov, Maggie Shillington 
  The 2018 Open Compute Project (OCP) summit was held March 20-21 in San Jose, California, with more than 3,000 people in attendance, an audience that has tripled over the last two years.
• Mobile World Congress 2018 IoT takeaways – Julian Watson 
  IoT, once again, was one of the hot topics/buzzwords at Mobile World Congress.
• Patent licensing industry transitions as we enter the world of 5G – Wayne Lam, Christian Kim 
  During Mobile World Congress 2018, 5G was the most discussed and highlighted topic.

Manufacturing Technology

• Waste reprocessing reviving the mining industry for variable frequency drives – Peter Taylor 
  Growth is forecast to return to the mining industry in 2018 and has led to an increase of reprocessing waste materials to extract metals or minerals that were previously overlooked.

Mobile & Telecom

• OFC 2018 highlights: Optical DCI leapfrog contest continues – Heidi Adams 
  The market for compact optical data center interconnect (DCI) platforms is the fastest-growing segment of the optical equipment market.
• OFC 2018: 400GbE data center optics arrive – Esther Cheh 
  One of the biggest themes at OFC 2018 was the volume of announcements around all aspects of the 400GbE client optics/transceivers ecosystem.
• Huawei looms large over Trump’s decision on Broadcom-Qualcomm deal – Wayne Lam 
  The decision handed down by the Trump administration essentially put an end to the months-long $117 billion hostile bid by Broadcom (AVGO) for Qualcomm (QCOM).
• When 5G millimeter wave meets small cells – Stephane Teral 
  There is no lack of confusing discussions about the need for small cells in 5G. Each time this topic is brought to me—and it comes up regularly these days—I ask the question: what is a 5G small cell?
• MWC18: What the C-level service provider suite says about 5G – Stephane Teral 
  As usual at this time of year, I did my pilgrimage to Barcelona’s Mobile World Congress, which according to the GSMA was attended by 107,000 people—1,000 fewer than last year.

Mobile, Consumer & Connected Devices

• Huawei looms large over Trump’s decision on Broadcom-Qualcomm deal – Wayne Lam 
  The decision handed down by the Trump administration essentially put an end to the months-long $117 billion hostile bid by Broadcom (AVGO) for Qualcomm (QCOM).
• LGE Korea 2018 OLED TV launch event – Ken Park 
  On 6 March, LG Electronics held a launch event for its 2018 premium TV lineup, which included both OLED TVs and Super UHD LCD TVs.

Power & Energy Technology

• Changes to PV Inverter Intelligence Service – Cormac Gilligan 
  In Q1 2018, IHS Markit has replaced the PV Demand Market Tracker with the PV Installations Tracker.
• Changes to PV Module Intelligence Service – Edurne Zoco 
  In Q1 2018, IHS Markit has replaced the PV Demand Market Tracker with the PV Installations Tracker.
• Changes to the Downstream PV Intelligence Service – Josefin Berg 
  In Q1 2018, IHS Markit has made important changes to the Downstream PV Intelligence Service.
• Changes to the Premium Solar Intelligence Service – Edurne Zoco 
  In Q1 2018, IHS Markit has made important changes to the Premium Solar Intelligence Service.
• The OCP’s community-driven innovation continues to spread – Clifford Grossner, Vladimir Galabov, Maggie Shillington 
  The 2018 Open Compute Project (OCP) summit was held March 20-21 in San Jose, California, with more than 3,000 people in attendance, an audience that has tripled over the last two years.
• Steel tariffs deal another blow to a resilient US solar market – Camron Barati 
  On 8 March, the president of the United States approved new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which are to take effect by March 23.
• Key takeaways from World Smart Energy Week 2018 – Cormac Gilligan, Holly Hu, Julian Jansen 
  World Smart Energy Week—including PV Expo, Smart Grid Expo, and Battery Expo—is the leading event in Japan for renewable energy and energy storage.

Semiconductors

• AMFT Executive Summary of forecast changes Q1 2018 – Myson Robles-Bruce 
  This is a brief executive summary of AMFT forecast changes produced exclusively for current subscribers.
• CO₂ dominates the smart-building gas sensor market – Brian O’Rourke 
  The gas sensor market is healthy and growing, with automotive, industrial, consumer, and homes among the leading applications.
• Advancing Oppo and Vivo achieved record chip spending amid slowing global smartphone demand – Chee Seng Tan 
  BBK Electronics’ offshoot, Oppo and Vivo, have taken the smartphone market by storm, rising quickly from market followers to become two of the biggest smartphone companies in the world in a few short years.

There's no escaping the word "blockchain" these days, a buzzword increasingly present in conversations and writer-ups seemingly everywhere. But is the hype justified?

Blockchain is what is known as a distributed digital ledger technology. Using cryptography and timestamps, blockchain provides a permanent record of transactions and interaction. The distributed form through which blockchain records, maintains, and tracks transactions eliminates the need for intermediaries during payment. And secure by design, blockchain data and information is fundamentally resistant to manipulation or modification. In this way, blockchain helps to reduce risk and cut down costs for everyone involved, in a manner that is also protected and permanent.

Blockchain penetration is most evident in the financial services industry, with payments-related solutions as early adopters. However, blockchain also carries significant implications for other vertical industries.

A new and complimentary eBook on blockchain is now available from IHS Markit that provides a comprehensive overview of the technology: how it works, why it could upend traditional ways of doing business, and what its challenges are.

The eBook also examines how blockchain could affect specific vertical industries, including transportation and logistics, identity protection, telecommunications, and semiconductors.

Access the IHS Markit web page now to download the free blockchain eBook

IHS Markit Technology Expert
Posted 13 June 2018

Games will continue to be the most lucrative mobile content category for the foreseeable future, dominating consumer spending on mobile app stores, even though its total share of market will decline slightly during the next four years, IHS Markit research and data show.

Of the $109 billion in worldwide consumer mobile spending projected by IHS Markit for 2022, games will account for a massive 75% share, worth some $83 billion. And while that represents a slight decline from the 80% share games commanded last year, the category retains its preeminence as the leading generator of mobile content revenue and spending, an honor it has enjoyed dating to the pre-app store era of the early and mid-2000s.

A key factor in the projected decline of the games category in the next few years is the rising adoption of in-app subscriptions from other categories, notably on-demand music and video, as well as dating apps. Even so, the games category will continue to grow, especially in the still-growing Chinese market and in rapidly expanding Southeast Asia. In comparison, growth will be more modest in North America, Europe, Japan, and South Korea as smartphone penetration reaches saturation and as the mobile games market matures.

Among regions, Asia Pacific will represent the biggest share of global mobile app spending, with 64% of the worldwide total by 2022. Japan will remain the world's top spender per capita, generating $120 per person in mobile app expenditure.

In app stores, Apple will maintain a clear lead even by 2022, although Google has been working to narrow its revenue gap with the market leader. Apple's increased focus on driving in-app subscriptions through its app-store billing will be a major driver of its ongoing dominance in the global mobile apps space. In key markets, Apple will continue to enjoy high-value monthly subscription content, growing the average revenue per account.

In China, where the Apple App Store is present but where Google Play is absent, Tencent is the top mobile games purveyor, with revenue in 2017 exceeding $9 billion, IHS Markit data show.

For more details, see the latest IHS Markit report on this subject, Mobile apps and games outlook: 2018, part of our Games Intelligence Service and Consumer Platforms & Ecosystems Intelligence Service.

Jack Kent is Director, Operators & Mobile Media, at the IHS Technology Group within IHS Markit.

Posted 11 July 2018

New reports from RootMetrics, a division of IHS Markit, are now out that examine the mobile performance of networks in both the United States and the United Kingdom during the first six months of 2018. For each country, RootMetrics has issued a three-part complementary series of special reports on how mobile operators' networks fared.

The results from the first half of this year show little change from the previous test period in the second half of 2017. In the United States, Verizon remained the operator with the strongest mobile performance for smartphone users in the country overall, while EE was the winner in the United Kingdom.

For the United States, the three reports cover the following three categories: across the entirety of the country, within each of the 50 US states, and throughout the 125 most populated US metropolitan markets.

For the United Kingdom, three reports are also available, covering mobile network performance in the following three categories: across the entire country; in each of the four UK nations of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland; and throughout the country's 16 most populous metropolitan markets.

Taken together, the three reports provide a complete view of mobile performance for smartphone users in the various spaces where consumers utilize their devices-from cities and towns of all sizes, to highways, rural areas, and all the places in between. Nearly 4 million tests were conducted in the United States during the test period. In the United Kingdom, more than 593,000 samples were collected.

US results: Verizon wins for the 10th straight time

In the United States, Verizon's performance on the national stage remained outstanding across all six test categories, and the carrier had far stronger results than those of any other carrier. Verizon has now won the US Overall RootScore Award for 10 consecutive test periods, each period conducted in six-month intervals. Offering strong competition in second place was AT&T, followed by T-Mobile in third place and Sprint in fourth.
Mobile performance in the US part 1: performance across the entire US - 1H 2018

Verizon also repeated its dominance on the state level, winning or sharing 259 State RootScore Awards out of 300 possible opportunities in the first half of 2018.
Mobile performance in the US part 2: performance across the 50 states - 1H 2018

Finally, in US metro areas, Verizon won by far the most RootScore Awards of any carrier. T-Mobile, however, pulled a surprise by surpassing AT&T in terms of Metro Area RootScore Awards.
Mobile performance in the US part 3: performance in metro areas 1H 2018

UK results: EE is runaway champ again

In the United Kingdom, EE made a sweep, winning all six UK RootScore Awards in the first half of 2018.

EE has now won the UK Overall RootScore Award outright 10 consecutive times, dating back to the second half of 2013. Meanwhile, second-place Three delivered strong results but saw its ranking retreat in two categories. Vodafone, was in third place, and O2 took the fourth and final spot.
Mobile performance in the UK part 1: performance across the entire UK - 1H 2018

At the nation level, EE remained at the top even though its tally of UK Nation RootScore Awards declined by two compared to what it won during the second half of 2017, the previous testing period. EE's total of 20 nation-level awards for the first half this year, however, puts it far ahead of the operator's next-closest competitor, Vodafone, with five awards for the current period.
Mobile performance in the UK part 2: performance in the four UK nations - 1H 2018

Within the UK's 16 most populous metros, EE earned the highest number of RootScore Awards of any operator-95. Vodafone had the next-highest tally at 34.
Mobile performance in the UK part 3: performance in the UK's 16 most populated metros - 1H 2018

RootMetrics conducts tests in mobile network performance around the world, and then transforms the collected data into insights that help the industry improve while giving consumers an accurate picture of performance. For more information on RootMetrics, visit us on our US site as well as our UK web location.

IHS Markit Technology Expert

Posted 15 August 2018

At the recently concluded IBC 2018 in Amsterdam, discussion and debate focused on key concerns facing the media landscape today: the changing ecosystem, the path forward for the industry, and the role of new technologies like Blockchain.

Below is a summary of key takeaways from IHS Markit analysts covering the event, often billed as the world's most influential media, entertainment, and technology show.

A longer Market Insight analysis on IBC 2018 is also available, at technology.ihs.com.

For Merrick Kingston, IHS Markit associate director for digital media and video technology, this year's conference served to affirm at least three of the more significant developments occurring today: that public shareholders are taking a backseat to private capital in what is shaping up to be a year of private equity; that analytics-related investments show little signs of abating; and that the services model is on the brink of reshaping the nature of pay-TV technology spending.

Meanwhile, hardware obsolescence is a problem that TV solution vendors can now credibly address, said Samuel McLaughlin, IHS Markit senior research analyst for service provider technology. That is because set-top manufacturers and middleware vendors now offer a host of solutions that allow operators to prolong obsolescence and delay the capital-intensive process of mass-box replacement.

For their part, set-top vendors have taken warmly to Google's Android TV, which has quickly become the platform of choice for much of the pay-TV industry, according to Paul Erickson, IHS Markit senior research analyst for service provider technology. Two other notable developments in the TV space: voice control in pay-TV continues to advance; and set-top box form factors, in their ongoing evolution, are expected to merge with that of soundbars and smart speakers.

As for ultra-high-definition (UHD) televisions, only a minimal presence could be detected at IBC for 8K TV sets, the next frontier being touted by TV manufacturers for television viewing.

The negligible attention paid to 8K at IBC was completely in contrast to the much greater interest lavished on the technology at IFA Berlin, noted Paul Gray, IHS Markit research and analysis director for TV and consumer electronics. At the event, considered the world's leading trade show on consumer electronics and home appliances, brands that showed off 8K included Samsung, LG, Sony, and Sharp.

The challenge with 8K, Gray said, is the lack of both content and supporting infrastructure. And even though an 8K satellite service launches in Japan in December this year as the country prepares to host the Olympics in 2020, there are no plans for now from broadcasters in any other country to launch 8K services.

Also at IFA, emphasis was strong on OLED, and brands with OLED lines hardly showed any of their LCD products, Gray remarked. Nonetheless, LCD continues to rule the market. In Western Europe, for example, LCD accounts for 96% of all TV shipments and 86% of total revenue, according to IHS Markit research.

Overall, the consumer electronics industry has followed a classical push strategy on its 4K products for the last four years, said Maria Rua Aguete, executive director for media, service providers, and platforms. For consumers, however, the value proposition in watching UHD content has been weak, supported by streaming services alone like Netflix and Amazon, along with some satellite channels.

In cinema, immersion technologies like 3D, HDR, and 4D seating are gaining traction, said David Hancock, IHS Markit director for film and cinema, although holograms and virtual reality are not realistic prospects yet for the movie auditorium. The transition in the industry to the standard SMPTE DCP is going well, he added, but the standards vs. innovation issue remains a subject of divisive debate in the cinema sector.

IHS Markit Technology Expert
Posted 26 September 2018